MID YEAR AND A NEW SEASON -- WITH NEW TRENDS COMING

Analisis bulan July  2011 ----- Artikel Daripada  Gold Trends..... 

GOLD and the 21st Century Bull Market

The long term price trend of gold remains intact and firm. But what lies ahead for the second half of the year? Perhaps the greatest trader and chartist of all time W.D. Gann said -- if you want to know what price is going to do ---- look to see what it has already done. Jim Sloman has commented --- THE STEEPER THE RISE --- THE MORE LIKELY you will get repetition. While there are many forecasts on what gold will do ------ should the GOLD market continue what it has been doing for 11 years ---- then it should rise about 33 months -------------and then take a break ---- and then the next big leg begins.

While we follow price more than we try and predict it ----- if price follows what it has been doing since the beginning of this bull market --- then we should not be surprised if gold takes a break near this LONG TERM price point. Not that it has too --- but if gold keeps doing what it has been doing --- we should EXPECT Some type of consolidation at the very least a little longer. The good news is that the bull is far from complete.

On a seasonal and MEDIUM TERM BAISIS we posted this chart during right around the first of June explaining a likely time for a SEASONAL pullback was June...........for the simple reason is that is what gold has done a lot of times in the past. Not every time ---- but by time one gets to May/June --- it is the most likely time for a pullback.

On average -- we should expect pressure into the middle of July as an ideal target ... but once in a while it does wait until the Oct/November time range. Such was the case in 2008 when gold kept rallying until almost August. The first target date for a seasonal low would be the middle of July. Until then ---- we could see more weakness.

 

 

 

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